掀起浪潮英语_掀起制造业革命

重塑汽车，第6集 (Reinventing the car, episode 6)

by Philippe Chain & Frederic Filloux

菲利普·链(Philippe Chain)和 弗雷德里克·菲洛 ( Frederic Filloux)

Mombasa, 2030 — Kenya has become a major player in car manufacturing for Sub-Saharan Africa. Over the last five years, the country has undergone the same technological leapfrogging for transportation as it did for telecommunication.

蒙巴萨，2030年-肯尼亚已成为撒哈拉以南非洲地区汽车制造的主要参与者。 在过去的五年中，该国在交通运输方面经历了与电信一样的技术跨越。

Twenty years earlier, Kenya managed to bypass the painstaking deployment of landlines to massively adopt mobile telecommunications. The move unleashed a flurry of services that lifted millions out of poverty by boosting banking and commercial services.

二十年前，肯尼亚设法绕过了艰苦的固定电话部署，以大规模采用移动通信。 此举释放了一系列服务，通过促进银行和商业服务使数百万人摆脱了贫困。

For transportation, the shift came from the modular architecture allowed by electric vehicles. Kenya never had to build any giant assembly plants to develop its car and small truck industry. Each week, in the port of Mombasa, ships offload scores of containers stuffed with what are called “skateboards”, i.e the wheeled platform that constitutes the basis for any car or small truck.

在运输方面，这种转变来自电动汽车允许的模块化架构。 肯尼亚从不需要建立任何大型装配厂来发展其汽车和小型卡车行业。 每周，在蒙巴萨港口，都有数十个装有所谓“滑板”的集装箱的卸货，这是构成任何汽车或小型卡车基础的带轮平台。

Previous episodes of the series:01: The car, reinvented. From scratch.02: Your next car will be electric03: How Tesla cracked the code of automobile innovation04: The Global Race for Battery Supply05: Code on Wheels

该系列的前几集： 01 ：汽车，被彻底改造。 从头开始。 02 ：您的下一辆汽车将是电动汽车 03 ：特斯拉如何破解汽车创新法规 04 ：全球电池供应竞赛 05 ：车轮法规

Skateboards (also called “boards”) host the key components of the vehicle: the frame (FKA the chassis), the battery pack, the motor(s), ECU, the braking and steering systems and suspensions (some skateboards are more advanced than others, we will talk about it later). It looks like this:

滑板(也称为“滑板”)承载着车辆的关键部件：车架(底盘为FKA)，电池组，电动机， ECU ，制动和转向系统以及悬架(某些滑板比其他，我们稍后再讨论。 看起来像这样：

None of the skateboards that arrive in Mombasa carry the name of legacy car manufacturers like Ford or Volkswagen. They bear the logos of startups created in 2010–2020: Canoo (USA), REE (Israel), Rivian (USA), OSV (Italy, USA, China), or Bollinger (USA) to name but a few. In the suburbs of Mombasa, an industrial zone has been nicknamed “car city”: a dozen companies are located there, specialized in the completion of EVs for all sorts of purposes: passenger cars, utility trucks, food trucks, school buses, even heavy-duty pickups, and all-terrain vehicles. These companies design and manufacture what is known as the “upper-body” or “top hat” in the jargon. Here are a few examples for Canoo, a board maker based in Los Angeles:

到达蒙巴萨的滑板都没有像福特或大众这样的老牌汽车制造商的名字。 它们带有在2010–2020年间创建的初创公司的徽标： Canoo (美国)， REE (以色列)， Rivian (美国)， OSV (意大利，美国，中国)或Bollinger (美国)等。 在蒙巴萨郊区，一个工业区被昵称为“汽车之城”：那里有十几家公司，专门从事电动汽车的生产，以用于各种目的：乘用车，杂货车，食品车，校车，甚至重型汽车-轻型皮卡车和全地形车。 这些公司设计和制造术语中的“上身”或“高顶礼帽”。 以下是Canoo的一些示例，Canoo是一家位于洛杉矶的董事会制造商：

One platform, five iterations: a seven-passenger van, a sedan, a pickup, an RV and two variations of cargo

一个平台，五次迭代：一辆七人厢货车，一辆轿车，一辆皮卡，一辆RV和两种变体货物

In Africa, in response to durability constraints, skateboards are designed with higher ground clearance, bigger wheels and thicker tires, like this one designed by Bollinger Motors:

在非洲，由于耐久性的限制，滑板的设计具有更高的离地间隙，更大的车轮和更厚的轮胎，就像Bollinger Motors设计的那样：

Some versions of its high-end all-terrain vehicle resemble the iconic Land Rover than once roamed Africa’s dirt-roads :

它的高端全地形车的某些版本类似于标志性的路虎，而不是曾经漫游过非洲的土路：

Now, in 2030, Bollinger is aiming at replacing the Toyota LandCruiser or Hilux.

现在，到2030年，布林哲计划取代丰田LandCruiser或Hilux。

While meeting the skateboard manufacturers’ specifications, top hats made in Africa are often cruder, made from riveted aluminum plates, to lower the price.

在满足滑板制造商的规格要求的同时，非洲制造的高顶礼帽通常较粗糙，由铆接的铝板制成，以降低价格。

This is the Sub-Saharan Africa of the 2030s, where micro solar-powered service stations have largely replaced roadside storage of gasoline. Thanks to bulky but inexpensive batteries, energy is stored during daylight, and 50 solar panels deliver roughly the same range (around 1200 km) to an EV that a hundred liters of gasoline stored in hazardous conditions previously did.

这是2030年代的撒哈拉以南非洲地区，微型太阳能服务站已在很大程度上取代了路边的汽油存储。 得益于笨重但价格便宜的电池，白天可以存储能量，而50块太阳能电池板可为电动汽车提供与以前在危险条件下存储的100升汽油大致相同的范围(约1200公里)。

* *

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This fiction is based on actual trends.

这是根据实际趋势写的小说。

The first one is the tendency observed in many developing countries to leapfrog technology when given the opportunity. We witnessed it for mobile communications and associated services. A similar shift is underway for solar and renewable energy and mobility will be next.

第一个是在许多发展中国家中发现的，有机会越过技术的趋势。 我们见证了它在移动通信和相关服务方面的发展。 太阳能和可再生能源也正在发生类似的转变，移动性将是下一个趋势。

The second trend is the steady improvement in battery capacity that goes with a sharp decrease in price per kilowatt/hour.

第二个趋势是电池容量的稳定提高，同时每千瓦时/小时的价格急剧下降。

The third and most important is the upcoming revolution in manufacturing.

第三，也是最重要的是即将到来的制造业革命。

彻底的全球分权 (A radical and global decentralization)

EV designs could lead to an atomization of the car building infrastructure. While the scenario stated above is based on realistic assumptions, it has many uncertainties such as the strategies of the different players and stakeholders, as well as the attractiveness of various countries, itself dependent on their political and economic stability, etc.

电动汽车设计可能导致汽车基础设施的雾化。 尽管上述情况是基于现实的假设，但它存在许多不确定性，例如不同参与者和利益相关者的战略以及各国的吸引力，这些国家本身取决于其政治和经济稳定性等。

But the logic looks inescapable. Smaller plants will likely make a relatively modest number of skateboard versions while the relative simplicity of assembling upper bodies will allow regional and local manufacturers to flourish. Instead of large, dedicated ships transporting 8,500 cars on 13 decks between Yokohama and Mombasa, for instance, we will see regular container ships off-loading standard 40-foot “boxes”, each of them stuffed with 8 to 12 skateboards delivered like any other merchandise. There will be no more need for 10,000-space parking lots to accommodate a single shipment of cars. Components will arrive in containers before they are loaded onto a semi-truck to go to the assembly plants, large or small, that are a few miles away.

但是逻辑看起来不可避免。 较小的工厂将可能生产相对较少数量的滑板，而组装上身的相对简单将使区域和本地制造商蓬勃发展。 例如，我们将看到常规集装箱船不再在横滨和蒙巴萨之间的13个甲板上运送8,500辆汽车，而是卸下标准的40英尺“盒子”，每个盒子都装满了8至12个滑板商品。 不再需要10,000个停车位来容纳单车。 零部件将在装入集装箱之前到达容器中，然后再进入几英里之外的大型装配厂或小型装配厂。

This shift will create a highly decentralized web of manufacturing facilities, each producing upper bodies in accordance with the regional market needs: full-featured urban taxis in Singapore, basic and robust pickup trucks in Nigeria, or school-buses in Manilla. Incidentally, it will lead to the creation of hundreds of thousands of jobs tied to this new car industry in countries that are currently only importers of finished automobiles and trucks.

这种转变将创建高度分散的制造工厂网络，每个工厂均根据区域市场需求生产上半身：新加坡的全功能城市出租车，尼日利亚的基本而坚固的皮卡车或马尼拉的校车。 顺便说一句，这将导致在目前仅是整车和卡车进口国的国家中，与这种新车业相关的工作创造数十万个就业机会。

Spare parts distributions will follow the same path. The various complicated versions of the combustion engine will be replaced by simple electric engines 5 to 10 times lighter and 10 times cheaper. Battery packs, compacted in a plate affixed to the car floor, will be included in the platform or also be designed to be loaded in containers and transported wherever needed.

备件分配将遵循相同的路径。 内燃机的各种复杂形式将由重量减轻5到10倍，便宜10倍的简单电动发动机取代。 可以将电池组压实在固定在汽车地板上的板上，也可以安装在平台中，也可以设计成可装入容器中并在需要时运输。

Western and Asian markets will undergo the same revolution with the split between the lower and upper parts of the car, leading to a massive decentralization for the completion phase of the car. Utility vehicles will drive innovation: last year Amazon announced a plan to deploy 100,000 delivery trucks based on the Rivian platform. The Israeli platform maker REE last week signed an agreement with the Indian carmaker Mahindra to build commercial EVs.

西方和亚洲市场将经历同样的革命，汽车下部和上部之间将发生分裂，从而导致汽车完成阶段的大规模分散化。 多功能车将推动创新：去年亚马逊宣布了一项计划，将基于Rivian平台部署100,000辆送货卡车。 以色列平台制造商REE上周与印度汽车制造商Mahindra 签署了生产商用电动汽车的协议。

However, Western markets could be slower to switch to the dual skateboard/top hat architecture, for various reasons. One is the weight of legacy practices at traditional carmakers. While Volkswagen-Audi claims to be ready for the big leap, they will actually rely on five or six platforms from which models will be iterated.

但是，出于各种原因，西方市场转而使用双滑板/高帽架构可能会比较慢。 一是传统汽车制造商的传统做法的重要性。 尽管大众-奥迪声称已为这一大跃进做好了准备，但实际上他们将依赖于从中迭代模型的五六个平台。

Other impediments include the stringent safety regulations in countries where any car must be able to sustain a 40mph impact as a standard and mandatory feature. This too has to evolve: it doesn’t make great sense to demand the same crash resistance for a small delivery truck dealing with urban traffic, than for a sedan zipping down highways. The small truck doesn’t need long beams and crash-boxes as in a Tesla (see episode 3). For a large part, despite a strong innovative DNA, the design of the Model S was dependent on the compulsory safety features. For instance, Tesla’s designers couldn’t get around the 600 to 800 millimeters of compression zone needed to absorb a frontal shock. Defining the regulations around vehicles in accordance with their actual use will allow more creative designs.

其他障碍包括一些国家/地区的严格安全规定，在这些国家/地区中，任何汽车都必须能够承受40英里/小时的冲击力 和强制性功能。 这也必须不断发展：对于一辆处理城市交通的小型送货卡车，要求它具有与高速公路上行驶的轿车相同的耐撞性没有什么意义。 小型卡车不需要特斯拉中的长梁和防撞箱( 请参阅第3集 )。 尽管有强大的创新DNA，但在很大程度上，Model S的设计取决于强制性安全功能。 例如，特斯拉的设计师无法获得吸收正面震动所需的600至800毫米的压缩区域。 根据车辆的实际用途定义法规，可以进行更具创意的设计。

电传驾驶 (Drive-by-wire)

Pushing the concept of radical modularity further will require some decisive innovations. One of them is the steer-by-wire and brake-by-wire (nicknamed “X-by-wire” in the industry). To put it simply, it means removing the steering column as well as the hydraulic braking system.

进一步推动基本模块化的概念将需要一些决定性的创新。 其中之一是线控转向和线控制动(在行业中被称为“ X-by-wire”)。 简单来说，这意味着要拆下转向柱以及液压制动系统。

To stop a traditional car, the driver depresses the brake pedal, which is attached to a master-cylinder that sends hydraulic pressure to secondary cylinders located in each wheel. For steering, the turn of the wheel is transmitted to a rack that moves the wheels. Since the 1950s, the manual steering action has been amplified by a power steering device, initially hydraulic and more recently electric, which has become a mandatory feature needed to pivot the wheels of a two-ton car.

为了停止传统汽车，驾驶员踩下制动踏板，该制动踏板连接到主缸上，该主缸将液压传递到位于每个车轮中的辅助缸。 为了进行转向，车轮的转弯被传递到移动车轮的齿条上。 自1950年代以来，手动转向操作已由动力转向装置增强，最初是液压的，最近是电动的，这已成为枢纽两吨汽车车轮所需的强制性功能。

Now we are talking about removing the hydraulic circuit and mechanical elements. X-by-wire means the pedal or the steering wheel will send electrical impulses that activate actuators to pivot the wheels or squeeze the brakes. The aerospace industry made the transition to fly-by-wire in the late 1960’with the French Concorde, then extended it to the Airbus family. It is now standard for any modern aircraft. Its adoption by the car industry has been much slower even if the benefits are widespread in terms of space-saving, weight, and simplification of manufacturing.

现在我们正在谈论拆除液压回路和机械元件。 线控X表示踏板或方向盘将发送电脉冲，从而激活致动器以使车轮旋转或挤压制动器。 航空航天业在1960年代后期与法国协和飞机一起过渡到电传飞行，然后将其扩展到空中客车家族。 现在，它已成为所有现代飞机的标准配置。 即使在节省空间，减轻重量和简化制造方面获得广泛的好处，汽车行业采用它的速度也要慢得多。

Legacy carmakers might have a hard time keeping up with innovation. Long development cycles, the “not invented here” syndrome, pre-existing large assembly lines, reluctance to tackle risky innovations like x-by-wire — more broadly, a widespread conservatism — won’t help. As tempting as it sounds, switching to the modular skateboard structure will take a while. Unless some manufacturers choose to team up with newcomers, such as the recent Hyundai and Canoo announcement, Skateboards, and new generation EVs will likely emerge with the help of one of the new crop of innovators.

传统汽车制造商可能很难跟上创新的步伐。 漫长的开发周期，“此处未发明”综合症，预先存在的大型装配线，不愿接受诸如线控x的风险创新(更广泛地说是广泛的保守主义)，都无济于事。 听起来很诱人，但切换到模块化滑板结构需要一段时间。 除非一些制造商选择与新来者合作，例如最近的现代和Canoo 公告 ，否则滑板和新一代电动汽车很可能会在一批创新者的帮助下出现。

— Philippe Chain & Frederic Filloux

— 菲利普·链 ( Philippe Chain) 和 弗雷德里克·菲洛 ( Frederic Filloux)

REE押注“角落” (REE’s bet on “Corners”)

总部位于特拉维夫的初创公司REE大大推动了滑板概念的发展。 原则上，它的方法是前进的道路。 我和它的首席执行官丹尼尔·巴雷尔(Daniel Barel)谈过。 (The Tel-Aviv-based startup REE has pushed the skateboard concept quite far. In principle, its approach is the way forward. I spoke with its CEO Daniel Barel.)

“The car is a very old concept when you think about it”, says Daniel Barel. “The main components have been around for a century. Brakes, steering systems, and suspensions have only gone through incremental innovations. With REE, we wanted to start with a blank canvas to build mobility solutions”.

“您考虑一下汽车是一个非常古老的概念，”丹尼尔·巴雷尔(Daniel Barel)说。 “主要组件已经存在了一个世纪。 制动器，转向系统和悬架只经过了不断的创新。 借助REE，我们希望从一块空白画布开始构建移动解决方案。”

The main feature of REE’s platform is the principle of “corners”: an integrated component attached to the wheel that includes all the key elements: propulsion, steering, braking, etc. Here are the details (click to enlarge):

REE平台的主要特征是“转角”原理：附着在车轮上的集成组件，包括所有关键要素：推进，转向，制动等。以下是详细信息(单击放大)：

The corner system carries multiple advantages. By removing the motors, the drivetrain, and other parts, it frees up a large space between the wheels. According to REE’s CEO, it is a perfect fit for what he calls “mission-specific vehicles” that carry different requirements in terms of size, power, speed, and crash-resistance.

转角系统具有多个优点。 通过拆下电动机，传动系统和其他零件，可以释放车轮之间的较大空间。 根据REE的首席执行官所说，它非常适合他所谓的“特定任务车辆”，这些车辆在尺寸，功率，速度和耐撞性方面均具有不同的要求。

“Today, an OEM [Original Equipment Manufacturer] is a big monster integrator and also a strong brand”, says Barel. “But the notion of brands is also shifting. When hailing a Uber, no one cares about the brand. Same for any delivery truck. The service is what matters.”

“今天，OEM(原始设备制造商)是巨大的怪物集成商，也是强大的品牌”，Barel说。 “但是品牌的观念也在转变。 向优步致敬时，没人在乎这个品牌。 任何送货卡车都一样。 服务才是最重要的。”

Hence the new players like him: platform providers, car-as-a-service providers, and data providers. REE intends to be present at every level. His “board” system, prevents the ripple effect of any change in the structure of the car. One platform, multiple usages: last-mile delivery truck, electric shuttle hailing, light commercial vehicle; etc. “If needed, we can put on our platform either the modern equivalent of a London cab or an all-terrain car”, says Barel.

因此，像他这样的新参与者：平台提供商，汽车即服务提供商和数据提供商。 REE打算出现在每个级别。 他的“木板”系统可防止汽车结构发生任何变化的涟漪效应。 一个平台，多种用途：最后一英里的送货卡车，电动班车，轻型商用车； 巴雷尔说：“如果需要，我们可以在平台上安装现代的伦敦出租车或全地形车。”

One of REE’s shareholders is Mitsubishi Auto Lease, the $1.4 billion-revenue leasing arm of the Japanese conglomerate. It constitutes a huge potential market for REE, with fleets of standardized vehicles that will be leased to third-party fleet operators or to customers.

REE的股东之一是三菱汽车租赁公司，这家日本企业集团的收入为14亿美元。 它为REE构成了巨大的潜在市场，其标准车队将出租给第三方车队运营商或客户。

Barel claims to have orders totaling “hundreds of thousands of vehicles”. Despite having a few versions of its board already available, most of the hardware will be customized to fit the needs of the fleets managed by the clients.

巴雷尔声称其订单总数为“数十万辆”。 尽管已经提供了几种版本的主板，但大多数硬件仍将根据客户管理的车队的需求进行定制。

The company also intends to work with large OEMs by building “integration centers” at their doorstep, says the CEO. Without being specific, Daniel Barel said he expects REE to spread in the United States, Germany, and Japan (in addition to India, with the aforementioned Mahindra deal). Right now, the company is moderately funded ($160 million), given its ambition and potential market size. Its competitors, who are less adventurous tech-wise, have collected more funding. Canoo, launched in 2017, has raised $300 million and Rivian, the behemoth, a hefty $5.6 billion.

该首席执行官表示，该公司还打算与大型OEM合作，在他们家门口建立“集成中心”。 丹尼尔·巴雷尔(Daniel Barel)没有具体说明，他预计稀土元素将在美国，德国和日本(除印度外，通过上述马辛德拉协议)传播。 目前，鉴于其雄心壮志和潜在的市场规模，该公司获得了适度的资金(1.6亿美元)。 它的竞争对手，在技术方面不太冒险，已经筹集了更多的资金。 于2017年推出的Canoo筹集了3亿美元，而庞然大物Rivian筹集了56亿美元。

Without any doubt, the corner approach is the ultimate design for electric vehicles: managing power, braking, steering, suspensions or anti-skating for each wheel is the way forward ensures better performance — that’s REE’s main bet for the future. — FF

毫无疑问，转弯方法是电动汽车的终极设计：对每个车轮进行动力，制动，转向，悬架或防滑的管理是确保更好性能的前进方向-这是REE未来的主要押注。 — FF

In episode 7, we will talk about Car-as-a-Service (CaaS) in which the notion of ownership will be replaced by various forms of leasing, renting, and sharing. Send us remarks and suggestions at automotive@mondaynote.com

在第7集中，我们将讨论“汽车即服务”(CaaS)，其中所有权的概念将被各种形式的租赁，租赁和共享所取代。 请给我们发送评论和建议： automotive@mondaynote.com