伊隆马斯克和美国的科技创新_技术创新的形式和动力

Technological innovation is a fundamental component of progress and is the main determinant of human development, defined as “a process of broadening human possibilities, enabling individuals to enjoy a long and healthy life, to be educated and to have access to the necessary resources at a dignified standard of living”.

技术创新是进步的基本组成部分，是人类发展的主要决定因素 ，它被定义为“扩大人类可能性，使个人享有长期健康的生活，受教育并获得必要资源的过程。尊严的生活水平”。

In addition to the basic concept of technological innovation, it is important to investigate the main categories and groups that are commonly used to distinguish the different forms that innovation takes, depending on certain characteristics.

除了技术创新的基本概念外，重要的是要研究通常用于根据某些特征来区分创新采取的不同形式的主要类别和类别。

In addition, it may be useful to focus on the concept of S curves applied to the process of technological improvement and to that of diffusion of a new technology, which allows a better understanding of the behaviour that innovation tends to assume in most cases while remaining fully aware that these are instruments that do not pretend to predict the success or path that a new technology will necessarily follow in order to assert itself on the market, but in any case, understanding that allows you to avoid making certain mistakes and to build more precise strategies at the same time, with a higher probability of success.

此外，将重点放在适用于技术改进过程和新技术扩散过程的S曲线的概念上可能会很有用，这有助于更好地了解创新在大多数情况下往往会采取的行为，同时保留完全意识到这些工具并不能假装预测新技术在市场上确立自己地位所必须遵循的成功或道路，但是在任何情况下，了解都可以使您避免犯某些错误并建立更多的工具。同时制定精确的策略，成功几率更高。

创新形式 (The Forms of Innovation)

Technological innovation can take different “forms” that are classified through the use of different criteria:

技术创新可以采用通过使用不同标准进行分类的不同“形式”：

性质 (Nature)

The first criterion used for classifying forms of innovation is the “nature of innovation”, and this may be:

用于对创新形式进行分类的第一个标准是“创新的性质”，它可能是：

• product innovation
  产品创新
• process innovation
  流程创新

Innovation is called product innovation when the innovation process focuses on the production of new technologies that can then be integrated into a specific good or service.

当创新过程专注于新技术的生产，然后可以将其集成到特定商品或服务中时，创新称为产品创新 。

Process innovation instead refers to processes that create innovation with the aim of modifying the production process of a given good or service, increasing its efficiency, and usually reducing the costs of production.

相反， 过程创新是指创造创新的过程，其目的是修改给定商品或服务的生产过程，提高其效率并通常降低生产成本。

强度和幅度 (Intensity and degree of amplitude)

With regard to the classification of innovation according to intensity and degree of amplitude, the innovation processes can be divided into:

关于根据强度和振幅的程度对创新进行分类，创新过程可以分为：

• radical innovations (disruption)
  根本性创新(破坏)
• incremental innovations
  渐进式创新

Radical innovations produce, for the most part, immediate and disruptive effects. This type of innovation is most commonly found in emerging sectors and therefore characterized by innovations that have the potential to upset the market, such as in the case of the introduction of modern smartphones. As a result of this attitude and manner of “attacking” the market, radical innovations have a considerable risk of failure, however, if successful, they can lead to very substantial returns in terms of profits.

激进的创新在很大程度上产生了直接和破坏性的影响。 这种类型的创新最常见于新兴领域，因此其特点是有可能破坏市场的创新，例如在引入现代智能手机的情况下。 由于这种态度和“攻击”市场的方式，彻底的创新具有相当大的失败风险，但是，如果成功的话，它们可以在利润方面带来非常可观的回报。

On the other hand, incremental innovations have a more gradual path, the change does not happen overnight but tends to develop over several years, thanks to the succession of “small” innovations implemented gradually. When it comes to incremental innovation, it basically refers to the improvement (or adaptation) of something that already exists. It increases the productivity and competitiveness of the enterprise by improving the efficiency of the use of all the factors of production.

另一方面， 渐进式创新具有更渐进的道路，这种变化并不是一overnight而就的，而是随着逐步实施的“小型”创新的延续，这种趋势会持续数年。 当涉及渐进式创新时，它基本上是指对已经存在的事物进行改进(或调整)。 它通过提高所有生产要素的使用效率来提高企业的生产率和竞争力。

对能力的影响 (Effect on competences)

The effect that innovation can have on the skills possessed, both at the enterprise level and at the market level as a whole, is a very important factor in the classification of innovation processes. Based on this particular aspect we can find:

创新对企业层面和整个市场层面所拥有技能的影响，是创新过程分类中非常重要的因素。 基于此特定方面，我们可以找到：

• “Competence-enhancing” innovation
  “增强能力”创新
• “Competence-destroying” innovation
  “破坏能力”的创新

Innovation is defined as competence-enhancing when it is based on the quantity of knowledge already existing within a company, strengthening and enriching it with new ideas and new information.

当创新基于公司内部已经存在的知识量，并通过新思想和新信息来增强和丰富创新时，创新就是能力增强 。

Competence-destroying innovation, on the other hand, does not derive from the past knowledge of an enterprise or entity but may render obsolete the knowledge accumulated over time both by the enterprise itself and by other entities present in the market. An example of this type of innovation can be found in the development and subsequent introduction of the electronic calculator on the market, which has rendered useless the skills accumulated up to that time on the operation and use of the slide rule, which performed the same functions but in a much less efficient way.

另一方面， 破坏能力的创新并非源自企业或实体的过去知识，而是会使企业自身和市场上存在的其他实体随时间积累的知识过时。 这种创新的例子可以在市场上开发和随后推出电子计算器中找到，这使到那时为止在执行和使用相同功能的计算尺上积累的技能变得毫无用处。但效率低得多。

目标区域 (Target area)

Finally, the last feature that we will see, used to distinguish the different forms of innovation, is the target area for which there are two types of innovation:

最后，我们将用来区分创新的不同形式的最后一个功能是目标领域，其中有两种创新类型：

• architectural innovations
  建筑创新
• modular innovations
  模块化创新

The architectural innovations lead to the change of the entire structure that makes up a given product, are therefore little and specific innovations that lead to visible changes on the product as a whole.

架构创新会导致组成给定产品的整个结构发生变化，因此，这些创新很少而且具体的创新会导致整个产品发生明显变化。

On the other hand, modular innovations are characterized by a very different impact, in fact, they focus on a specific element or component of a product, concentrating the forces then on one aspect and without causing major changes to the product as a whole.

另一方面， 模块化创新的特点是影响截然不同，实际上，它们专注于产品的特定元素或组件，然后将力集中在一个方面，而不会引起整个产品的重大变化。

技术和商业规模 (Technical and Commercial Dimensions)

When developing an innovation project, it is important to consider two different dimensions in which the innovation process can have a major impact, namely the technical and commercial dimensions. Both these dimensions are essentially complementary areas and it is good that, while preserving their specificities and differences, they can collaborate and be strongly interconnected in order to provide important insights and information to each other.

在开发创新项目时，重要的是要考虑两个不同的方面，这些方面会对创新过程产生重大影响，即技术和商业方面 。 这两个方面在本质上都是互补的领域，并且在保持它们的特异性和差异性的同时，它们可以相互协作并紧密地相互联系，以便彼此提供重要的见解和信息，这是一个很好的做法。

The technical dimension includes the resources and skills linked to:

技术方面包括与以下方面相关的资源和技能：

• design and incorporation of technology
  设计和整合技术
• production systems
  生产系统
• supply (raw materials and suppliers)
  供应(原材料和供应商)
• facilities
  设备

This dimension is crucial both in terms of improving efficiency in a given innovation project and thus reducing the cost of producing a given product, as well as for the creation of new and possibly more performing products. It can, therefore, be subject to both product innovation and process innovation.

无论是在给定创新项目中提高效率 ，从而降低生产给定产品的成本，还是对于创建 新的和性能可能更高的产品，此维度都是至关重要的。 因此，它既可以进行产品创新，也可以进行Craft.io创新。

As far as the commercial dimension is concerned, it includes the resources and skills linked to:

就商业方面而言，它包括与以下方面相关的资源和技能：

• the relationship with customers
  与客户的关系
• the management and choice of distribution channels
  分销渠道的管理和选择
• customer knowledge of the product
  客户对产品的了解

This part has the great advantage that being in direct contact with customers and therefore with the market, it has a far better perspective than the trends and the diffusion of a given product or technology. As part of an innovation strategy, the commercial dimension can provide the technical area with all the information it can gather about the market and the needs of its customers so that managers can decide to steer development in one direction rather than another.

该部分的最大优势是与客户直接联系，因此与市场直接联系，它具有比给定产品或技术的趋势和扩散更好的视角。 作为创新策略的一部分，商业维度可以为技术领域提供它可以收集的有关市场和客户需求的所有信息，以便管理人员可以决定将开发方向导向一个方向，而不是另一个方向。

S曲线 (The S Curve)

S curves are used to describe both the technological improvement curve and the diffusion curve of new technologies. It has been noted that in both cases the trajectory followed on the one hand by technological improvement, and on the other by the spread of a new technology, follows an “S” trajectory, with the first stage of development almost flat, then a second phase of very fast increment that ends with a third area where the movement loses strength and reaches the upper limit.

S曲线用于描述技术改进曲线和新技术的扩散曲线。 已经注意到，在这两种情况下，一方面是技术进步，另一方面是新技术的传播，其轨迹遵循“ S”轨迹，第一阶段的发展几乎是平稳的，然后是第二阶段。快速增加的阶段，以运动失去力量并达到上限的第三区域结束。

技术改进的S曲线 (The S curve of Technological Improvement)

In the case of technological improvement, the S curve is represented in a graph where, on the x-axis, there is the effort, while on the y-axis there is the level of 3, which is intended as the improvement that the technology can have.

在技​​术改进的情况下，S曲线用图表表示，其中x轴上有力 ，而y轴上有3级，这是对技术的改进。可以有。

In this case, the “S” curve shows in the initial phase (first block) a slow improvement in performance, caused mainly by the fact that the basic principles of the new technology have been understood for the time being still partially and fragmented. As a result, many mistakes are still made and inventors need more time and effort to better understand how to get the most out of this new technology.

在这种情况下，“ S”曲线在初始阶段(第一个程序段)显示性能的缓慢提高，这主要是由于以下事实造成的：对新技术的基本原理的理解仍是部分而零散的。 结果，仍然会犯许多错误，发明者需要更多的时间和精力来更好地了解如何充分利用这项新技术。

This first phase does not have a specific duration, for this reason on the x-axis time has not been indicated but a more generic concept of “effort”, in fact, this phase could last a few months as well as several years. The duration of this phase depends mainly on the commitment of the person in charge of development.

该第一阶段没有特定的持续时间，因此未在x轴上显示时间，而是一个更通用的“努力”概念，实际上，该阶段可能持续数月甚至数年。 此阶段的持续时间主要取决于开发负责人的承诺。

Later (second block), when the knowledge about the new technology increases, the technological improvements proceed faster and there is therefore a sudden increase in performance, albeit with little additional effort.

稍后(第二阶段)，当有关新技术的知识增加时，技术改进的进行速度会加快，因此，性能会突然提高，尽管付出了很少的额外努力。

Finally (third block), as we get closer to the natural limit of technology, the “S” curve tends to flatten, and at this point, while dedicating effort, the improvements in terms of performance are almost insignificant.

最后(第三阶段)，当我们接近技术的自然极限时，“ S”曲线趋于平缓，在这一点上，尽管我们全力以赴，但性能方面的改进几乎是微不足道的。

新技术扩散的S曲线 (The S curve of the Diffusion of a New Technology)

As for the use of the “S” curve in order to describe the diffusion process of a new technology, the curve is inserted within a graph that indicates on the x-axis the time and on the y-axis the percentage of adopters, that is, the customers who transpose a given technology.

至于使用“ S”曲线来描述新技术的扩散过程，将曲线插入到图表中，该图表在x轴上表示时间 ，在y轴上表示采用者的百分比 ，即是，使用特定技术的客户。

Also in this case the departure is slow, in fact, for a period of time the new adopters are very few because the innovation is still to an initial stage and therefore in little succeed to notice the potentialities enough to start adopting it.

同样在这种情况下，离开的速度很慢，实际上，在一段时间内，新采用者很少，因为创新仍处于初期阶段，因此几乎没有成功注意到足以开始采用它的潜力。

These subjects are called innovators, which are fundamental to the affirmation of new technologies. They are characterized by a high purchasing power and a strong propensity to spend their money on a type of product that they are particularly interested in. Their role is so important because they act as a channel of communication between the company and the market as they have a strong ability to communicate the success of an innovation. As a result, companies that are in the process of devising a marketing strategy for a new product tend to have an eye for this group of customers as it often becomes crucial to determine the success or failure of an innovation.

这些主题被称为“ 创新者” ，对确认新技术至关重要。 他们的特点是具有很高的购买力和很强的意愿将钱花在他们特别感兴趣的产品上。它们的作用非常重要，因为它们充当了公司和市场之间的沟通渠道。交流创新成功的强大能力。 结果，正在为新产品制定营销策略的公司倾向于关注这一类客户，因为这对于确定创新的成败至关重要。

Then, the second group, which is that of first adopters, is however a small group but crucial in allowing the technology to develop and spread in the market. In fact, after the first adopters, we see the entry on the market of the early majority.

然后，第二组，即第一批采用者 ，是一个很小的小组，但对于允许该技术在市场中发展和传播至关重要。 实际上，在第一个采用者之后，我们看到了大多数人进入市场。

This is a much larger group than the previous two, and while adopting products that are in a sense asserting themselves on the market, they still show a good propensity for innovation and strongly encourage the spread of the technology, which then gets adopted by the late majority.

这是比前两个更大的群体，虽然采用的是在某种意义上是市场上宣称自己的产品，他们仍然表现出良好的创新倾向，并大力鼓励技术，然后把它在年底通过的蔓延多数 。

As the name suggests, the late majority, which together with the groups mentioned above confirms the fact that innovation has been a great success as it has been adopted by more than 80% of the market, even by those who are generally more reluctant to change and who adapt only at a later stage or for certain obligations related to the profession or similar reasons.

顾名思义，已故的大多数人(连同上述团体)证实了这一事实，即创新已取得巨大成功，因为创新已被超过80％的市场所采用，即使那些通常不愿改变的人也是如此并且仅在较晚的阶段或由于与该职业有关的某些义务或类似原因而适应。

Finally, the last group that then leads to almost total adoption by the market is that of laggards. This group, like the late majority, shows a certain skepticism towards innovation, but to an even greater extent than the previous group, in fact, they decide to adopt the new technology only when it is spread almost completely and completely on the market.

最后，导致市场几乎完全采用的最后一组是落后者 。 与大多数人一样，该群体对创新表现出一定的怀疑态度，但比前一组更大，实际上，他们决定仅在新技术几乎完全和完全在市场上推广时才采用新技术。

“ S”曲线的极限 (Limits of “S” curves)

The “S” technology curves, as described in the previous sections, are useful tools that are in fact used to allow a better understanding of the phenomena of diffusion of new technologies and also of technological improvements.

如前几节所述，“ S”技术曲线是有用的工具，实际上可用于更好地了解新技术的传播现象以及技术改进。

They can be useful to better understand certain phenomena and to support the creation of a strategy, but nevertheless they have quite obvious limitations and for this reason, they should not be considered infallible, that they can predict the future or accurately assess the situation of an innovative product.

它们可能有助于更好地理解某些现象并支持制定策略，但是它们有明显的局限性，因此，不应将它们视为绝对可靠的，它们可以预测未来或准确评估企业的状况。创新产品。

This is because S curves are based on estimates that management makes at a given time. In fact, there are no really reliable tools or ways of understanding the specific position of a given innovation at any given time.

这是因为S曲线基于管理层在给定时间所做的估计 。 实际上，在任何给定时间都没有真正可靠的工具或方法来了解给定创新的具体位置。

In addition, another even more important reason is the fact that the world of innovation is characterized by great uncertainty, and it is therefore absolutely normal to see products that, for various reasons, lose large portions of market share as a result of the dissemination of a competing product, even before reaching the final stage of the curve.

此外，另一个更重要的原因是，创新世界具有很大的不确定性，因此，由于各种原因，产品因传播而损失了很大一部分市场份额，这是绝对正常的。竞争产品，甚至在达到曲线的最后阶段之前。

In other cases, however, a new technological breakthrough could completely change the cards on the table and interrupt the process of developing a technology that is entering the second phase, which should be characterized by very high-performance increases over the increase in commitment, which has now become obsolete.

但是，在其他情况下，一项新的技术突破可能会完全改变桌面上的牌，并中断正在进入第二阶段的技术开发过程，该阶段的特征应是在承诺增加的基础上实现非常高性能的提高，现在已经过时了。