tiktok为什么黑屏_为什么tiktok交易可能会使其买家面目全非

大技术 (Big Technology)

As TikTok owner ByteDance prepares to sell the app’s U.S. operation, some are already calling the deal a bargain, or the next Instagram. But this acquisition is filled with risks that the popular discussion has largely ignored.

当 TikTok所有者ByteDance准备出售该应用程序在美国的业务时，有些人已经将这笔交易称为便宜货 ，或者说是下一个Instagram 。 但是这次收购充满了人们普遍忽略的风险。

A social app is a delicate piece of merchandise, one that will break in the hands of people who don’t know what to do with it. The leading bidders — Oracle, and a combination of Microsoft and Walmart — are understandably jumping at the chance to buy the hottest app on the planet. But the bear case on TikTok, however unpopular, is well worth considering.

社交应用程序是一个微妙的一件商品，一个将reak B IN的人谁不知道该怎么做的手中。 可以理解的是，Oracle以及微软和沃尔玛的结合者是竞标者，他们有机会购买全球最热门的应用程序。 但是TikTok上的熊案，无论多么不受欢迎，都是值得考虑的。

Here are the main factors I’d worry about before signing the contract:

签订合同之前，我会担心以下主要因素：

领导 (Leadership)

When Marissa Mayer bought Tumblr for $1 billion in May 2013, she said Yahoo would keep its hands off the app. “We won’t screw it up,” she promised, just before screwing it up. Yahoo’s uninvolved approach with Tumblr was the problem, as the app stayed stagnant and grew irrelevant. Without constant reinvention, consumer social apps go the route of Tumblr, Vine, and Myspace. They die. Facebook has only kept itself relevant through constant reinvention, transforming itself from an online directory to a broadcast platform to a series of smaller networks including Groups and messaging threads. TikTok itself is a reinvented version of Musical.ly.

2013年5月，玛丽莎·梅耶(Marissa Mayer)以10亿美元的价格收购了Tumblr时，她说雅虎将不再使用该应用程序。 她答应说：“我们不会搞砸它。” 雅虎与Tumblr无关的方法是问题所在，因为该应用程序一直停滞不前，并且变得无关紧要。 没有持续的革新，消费者社交应用程序会走Tumblr，Vine和Myspace的路线。 他们死。 Facebook只是通过不断的革新来保持自己的重要性，将自己从在线目录转换为广播平台，再到一系列较小的网络，包括组和消息传递线程。 TikTok本身是Musical.ly的全新版本。

To persist, TikTok’s leadership must be willing to take major product gambles instead of simply protecting the asset. But it’s unclear who its leaders will be. ByteDance CEO Zhang Yiming, who led the Musical.ly transformation, will not come along with the deal. TikTok CEO Kevin Mayer just quit. Many TikTok employees, who might inspire the app’s next reinvention, won’t come with either. As soon as Oracle makes a marketing automation VP the next head of TikTok, you can start saying goodbye.

要坚持下去，TikTok的领导层必须愿意承担主要的产品赌注，而不是简单地保护资产。 但目前尚不清楚其领导人将是谁。 领导Musical.ly转型的ByteDance首席执行官张一鸣将不会达成交易。 TikTok首席执行官凯文梅耶(Kevin Mayer) 辞职了 。 许多TikTok员工(可能会激发应用程序的下一次革新)都不会附带。 一旦Oracle任命TikTok的下一任负责人为市场营销自动化副总裁，您就可以说再见了。

算法 (The algorithm)

TikTok’s recommendation algorithm is its key differentiator. By monitoring how you interact with its videos, the app can quickly figure out what you enjoy and show you more of it — no need to comb through accounts to follow. The Chinese government, however, is restricting the sale of that algorithm, leaving the negotiations in a lurch.

TikTok的推荐算法是它的主要区别。 通过监视您与视频的互动方式，该应用程序可以快速找出您喜欢的内容并向您显示更多内容-无需梳理帐户即可关注。 但是，中国政府限制了该算法的销售，使谈判陷入了困境。

The bidders are reportedly now considering buying TikTok without the algorithm, a sign they’re not approaching this deal with the necessary level of sophistication (they’re also rushing, in part, due to the White House’s deadline). Ultimately, the algorithm is the most important part of the purchase. If the bidders settle for anything less, they are playing themselves.

据报道，投标人现在正在考虑在不使用算法的情况下购买TikTok ，这表明他们没有以必要的成熟度达成协议(部分原因是由于白宫的截止日期，他们也急于求购 )。 最终，算法是购买过程中最重要的部分。 如果竞标者愿意接受的价格更低，那么他们就是在玩牌。

来自Facebook的竞争 (Competition from Facebook)

Mark Zuckerberg doesn’t like to lose. In part, because he can’t afford to. When you starting spending time on another social app, you’re not spending time on Facebook. And it’s rare you’ll come back.

马克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)不喜欢输。 部分原因是他负担不起。 当您开始在其他社交应用上花费时间时，您并没有在Facebook上花费时间。 而且很少回来。

Facebook’s TikTok clone — Reels — got off to a shaky start. But it’s hard to imagine it stays inferior for very long. Facebook has a world-class machine learning research operation, one that’s filled with the type of people who build recommendation algorithms for a living. So Reels will catch up with TikTok eventually. (Remember: After Instagram Stories debuted, Snapchat started copying its features back into its own product.)

Facebook的TikTok克隆-卷轴-起步不稳。 但是很难想象它会持续很长时间。 Facebook拥有世界一流的机器学习研究业务，其中充满了构建推荐算法的人们。 因此Reels最终将赶上TikTok。 (切记：Instagram Stories首次亮相后，Snapchat 开始将其功能复制回自己的产品中。)

If you’re Oracle or Microsoft and Walmart, Zuckerberg will be coming after you the moment you sign the deal. Are you ready to go to war?

如果您是Oracle或Microsoft和Walmart，那么在签署交易的那一刻，扎克伯格就会紧随其后。 你准备好去战争了吗？

商业模式 (Business model)

Then there’s the matter of how these companies will make money from TikTok. The “winner” will say they’ll put TikTok’s algorithms into their current product offering. But as a general rule, PR statements about applying consumer algorithms to enterprise technology are misleading. TikTok’s technology isn’t likely to make a meaningful difference on Walmart.com.

然后就是这些公司如何从TikTok赚钱的问题。 “赢家”会说，他们会将TikTok的算法纳入他们目前的产品中。 但通常，有关将消费者算法应用于企业技术的PR陈述具有误导性。 TikTok的技术不太可能在Walmart.com上产生有意义的变化。

The acquiring company could build some commerce features, like a Buy button, into TikTok. But social commerce is a notoriously difficult business to crack. Twitter, for instance, tried to add a Buy button and shopping pages only to dissolve its entire social commerce team.

收购公司可以在TikTok中构建一些商务功能，例如“购买”按钮。 但是，众所周知，社交商务是很难破解的业务。 例如，Twitter试图添加“购买”按钮和购物页面只是为了解散其整个社交商务团队 。

Advertising is the other option. But competing with Facebook and Google on data and reach is exceptionally difficult, though not impossible. Amazon is making some inroads here, but it’s only growing due to its massive audience and valuable purchase data. TikTok’s data, while valuable, isn’t the same caliber.

广告是另一种选择。 但是，与Facebook和Google在数据和范围上展开竞争异常困难，尽管并非不可能。 亚马逊在这里取得了一些进展，但它的增长只是由于其庞大的受众和有价值的购买数据。 TikTok的数据虽然有价值，但是却不一样。

名誉损害 (Reputational harm)

The public will never look at a TikTok acquisition as a brilliant move. At best, they’ll see it as a savvy decision in an unusual situation. For a company like Microsoft, widely admired after its post-Ballmer resurgence, this is risky. The company may lose the goodwill it’s built in recent years and could end up looking like a kid yelling “mine” during recess while holding someone else’s toy.

公众永远不会将收购TikTok视为一个绝妙的举动。 充其量，他们会在不寻常的情况下将其视为明智的决定。 对于像鲍尔默(Ballmer)复兴之后受到广泛赞誉的微软这样的公司来说，这是冒险的。 该公司可能会失去近年来建立的商誉，最终可能看起来像个孩子，在休息时拿着别人的玩具大喊“地雷”。

判决 (The verdict)

When ByteDance’s Yiming apologized for content that was “in deviation of socialist core values” in 2018, and pledged to add thousands of censors to satisfy the Chinese government, it was only a matter of time until the U.S. took action against TikTok. An app that influences culture to the extent that TikTok does can’t be so beholden to a rival superpower’s government. The sale option is intriguing, but an outright ban may be the best option for all involved.

当字节跳动的逸明在2018年为“背离社会主义核心价值观”的内容道歉 ，并承诺增加数千名审查员以满足中国政府的要求时，美国对TikTok采取行动只是时间问题。 像TikTok那样影响文化的应用程序不能像竞争对手的超级大国政府那样着迷。 销售选项很吸引人，但是彻底禁止可能是所有参与者的最佳选择。

本周在“大技术”播客上：Box CEO Aaron Levie (This week on the ‘Big Technology’ podcast: Box CEO Aaron Levie)

Box CEO Aaron Levie joins the Big Technology podcast this week. He talks about the disconnect between the stock market and Main Street, what it’s like competing with the tech giants, and explains some of his more puzzling tweets.

Box首席执行官Aaron Levie本周加入了Big Technology播客。 他谈到了股票市场和Main Street之间的脱节，与科技巨头竞争的感觉，并解释了他一些令人费解的推文。

You can listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Overcast. And you can read the transcript on OneZero.

您可以收听和订阅Apple Podcast ， Spotify和Overcast 。 您可以在OneZero上阅读成绩单。

编程说明 (Programming note)

Big Technology is off next week, returning the week of September 14. We’ll still have a new podcast and transcript with GV partner M.G. Siegler. Thanks again for reading and I’ll see you soon.

Big Technology下周关闭，返回9月14日这一周。我们仍将与GV合作伙伴MG Siegler进行新的播客和录音。 再次感谢您的阅读，我们很快会再见。

OneZero is publishing this story in an exclusive syndication partnership with Big Technology, a newsletter by Alex Kantrowitz. You can sign up here.

OneZero 将与Alex Kantrowitz的时事通讯Big Technology独家联合发布该故事。 您可以 在这里注册 。