2024年美国大学生数学建模竞赛E题中英版_24年国际赛数模e题

中文赛题：房产保险的可持续性

极端天气事件正成为房产所有者和保险公司的危机。世界近年来已经承受了“超过1万亿美元的损失，这些损失源自超过1000次的极端天气事件。”[1] 保险行业在2022年因自然灾害的索赔增加了“与30年平均水平相比增长了115%。”[1] 随着洪水、飓风、气旋、干旱和野火等严重天气相关事件的损失可能增加，情况预计会进一步恶化。保险费用正在迅速上涨，气候变化推动预计到2040年将增加30-60%。[1]

房产保险不仅变得越来越贵，而且越来越难找到，因为保险公司改变了他们愿意承保的方式和地点。推动房产保险费用上涨的天气相关事件在世界不同地区看起来各不相同。此外，全球保险保护缺口平均为57%，且在增加。[2] 这凸显了行业的困境 - 对于保险公司而言是盈利能力的新危机，对于房产所有者而言是可负担性的问题。

COMAP的灾难保险建模者（ICM）对房产保险行业的可持续性感兴趣。随着气候变化增加了更严重的天气和自然灾害的可能性，ICM希望确定如何最好地调整房产保险，以便系统具有弹性，能够覆盖未来索赔的成本，同时确保保险公司的长期健康。如果保险公司在太多情况下不愿意承保，它们将因客户太少而破产。相反，如果他们承保风险太大的保单，他们可能要支付太多的索赔。在什么条件下保险公司应该承保？他们什么时候应该选择承担风险？房产所有者能做些什么来影响这个决定？为保险公司开发一个模型，以确定他们是否应该在经历越来越多极端天气事件的地区承保。使用两个不同大陆上经历极端天气事件的地区来展示你的模型。

展望未来，社区和房地产开发商需要问自己如何以及在哪里建造和发展。随着保险格局的变化，未来的房地产决策必须确保房产更加坚固，并有意识地建造，包括为不断增长的社区和人口提供适当服务的可行性。你的保险模型如何适应评估在特定地点是否、如何以及是否建造？

可能有一些社区，你的保险模型建议不承保当前或未来的房产保险政策。这可能导致社区领导面临关于具有文化或社区意义的房产的艰难决策。例如，北卡罗来纳州外海岸的开普哈特拉斯灯塔被移动，以保护这座历史悠久的灯塔以及围绕它的当地旅游产业。[3] 作为一个社区领导者，你如何识别社区中应该因其文化、历史、经济或社区意义而被保留和保护的建筑？开发一个保存模型，供社区领导使用，以确定他们应采取的保护社区建筑的措施程度。

选择一个历史地标 - 不是开普哈特拉斯灯塔 - 位于经历极端天气事件的地点。应用你的保险和保存模型来评估这个地标的价值。根据你从保险和保存模型的结果中获得的洞察，为社区推荐一个计划、时间表和成本提案的一页信函，以确保他们珍视的地标的未来。

你的PDF解决方案不得超过总共25页，应包括：

• 一页摘要表，清楚描述你解决问题的方法和你的分析中最重要的结论。

• 目录。

• 你的完整解决方案。

• 一页社区信函。

• 参考文献列表。

• AI使用报告（如果使用）

注意：对于完整的MCM提交没有具体要求的最小页数。你可以使用最多25页来展示你的解决方案工作和任何你想包含的额外信息（例如：绘图、图表、计算、表格）。接受部分解决方案。我们允许谨慎使用AI，如ChatGPT，尽管不必须通过AI创建解决方案。如果你选择使用生成式AI，你必须遵循COMAP的AI使用政策。这将导致你必须在PDF解决方案文件的末尾添加一个额外的AI使用报告，且不计入你的解决方案的总页数25页限制内。

参考资料

[1] Boston Consulting Group. (2023, December 4). An Insurance Risk Framework for Climate Adaptation. Retrieved at: A Climate Adaptive Insurance Risk Framework | BCG

[2] Munich RE. (2022, January 10). Hurricanes, cold waves, tornadoes: Weather disasters in USA dominate natural disaster losses in 2021"). Retrieved at: Hurricanes, cold waves, tornadoes: Weather disasters in USA dominate natural disaster losses in 2021 | Munich Re

[3] Union of Concerned Scientists. (2016, July 19). Saving an Icon: Moving the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse Away from the Shifting Shoreline. Retrieved at: https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/moving-cape-hatteras-lighthouse-away-shifting-shoreline

术语表

保险保护缺口：自然灾害引起的经济损失与这些损失被覆盖的金额之间的差异。

承保：接受责任，从而保证在损失或损害的情况下支付。

Problem D: Sustainability of Property Insurance

Extreme-weather events are becoming a crisis for property owners and insurers. The world has endured “more than $1 trillion in damages from more than 1,000 extreme-weather events in recent years.”[1] The insurance industry saw claims for natural disasters in 2022 increase by “115% compared to the 30-year average.”[1] Conditions are expected to get worse as losses from severe weather-related events are likely to increase due to floods, hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, and wildfires. Premiums for insurance coverage are rising quickly, with climate change fueling projected increases of 30-60% by 2040.[1]

Property insurance is not only getting more expensive, but also harder to find, as insurance companies change how and where they are willing to underwrite policies. The weather-related occurrences propelling the cost of property insurance premiums look different depending on where you are in the world. Additionally, the insurance protection gap averages 57% worldwide and is increasing.[2] This highlights the industry’s dilemma - the emerging crisis in profitability for the insurers and in affordability for the property owners.

COMAP’s Insurance of Catastrophes Modelers (ICM) are interested in the sustainability of the property insurance industry. As climate change increases the likelihood of more severe weather and natural disasters, ICM wants to determine how best to posture property insurance now such that there is resilience in the system to cover the cost of future claims while also ensuring long-term health of insurance companies. If insurance companies are unwilling to underwrite policies in too many cases, they will go out of business due to too few customers. Conversely, if they underwrite policies that are too risky, they may pay too many claims. Under what conditions should insurance companies underwrite policies? When should they choose to take the risk? Is there anything a property owner could do to influence this decision? Develop a model for insurance companies to determine if they should underwrite policies in an area that has a rising number of extreme weather events. Demonstrate your model using two areas on different continents that experience extreme weather events.

As we look to the future, communities and property developers need to be asking themselves how and where to build and grow. As the insurance landscape changes, future real-estate decisions must be made to ensure properties are more resilient and built deliberately, including the viability to offer appropriate services to growing communities and populations. How can your insurance model be adapted to assess where, how, and whether to build on certain sites?

There may be communities where your insurance model recommends against underwriting current or future property insurance policies. This may result in community leaders facing tough decisions about properties with cultural or community significance. For example, the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse was moved on the Outer Banks of North Carolina to protect this historic light house along with the local tourism industry centered around it.[3] As a community leader, how could you identify buildings in a community that should be preserved and protected due to their cultural, historical, economic, or community significance? Develop a preservation model for community leaders to use to determine the extent of measures they should take to preserve buildings in their community.

Select a historic landmark – not Cape Hatteras Lighthouse – that is in a location that experiences extreme weather events. Apply your insurance and your preservation models to assess the value of this landmark. Compose a one-page letter to the community recommending a plan, timeline, and cost proposal for the future of their treasured landmark considering the insight you have gained from the results of your insurance and preservation models.

Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:

• One-page summary sheet that clearly describes your approach to the problem and your most important conclusions from your analysis in the context of the problem.

• Table of Contents.

• Your complete solution.

• One-page community letter.

• References list.

• AI Use Report (if used)

Note: There is no specific required minimum page length for a complete MCM submission. You may use up to 25 total pages for all your solution work and any additional information you want to include (for example: drawings, diagrams, calculations, tables). Partial solutions are accepted. We permit the careful use of AI such as ChatGPT, although it is not necessary to create a solution to this problem. If you choose to utilize a generative AI, you must follow the COMAP AI use policy. This will result in an additional AI use report that you must add to the end of your PDF solution file and does not count toward the 25 total page limit for your solution.

References

[1] Boston Consulting Group. (2023, December 4). An Insurance Risk Framework for Climate Adaptation. Retrieved at: A Climate Adaptive Insurance Risk Framework | BCG

[2] Munich RE. (2022, January 10). Hurricanes, cold waves, tornadoes: Weather disasters in USA dominate natural disaster losses in 2021"). Retrieved at: Hurricanes, cold waves, tornadoes: Weather disasters in USA dominate natural disaster losses in 2021 | Munich Re

[3] Union of Concerned Scientists. (2016, July 19). Saving an Icon: Moving the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse Away from the Shifting Shoreline. Retrieved at: https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/moving-cape-hatteras-lighthouse-away-shifting-shoreline

Glossary

Insurance Protection Gap: the difference in protection coverage between economic losses brought about by natural disasters and the amount of those losses that are covered.

Underwrite: accept liability for, thereby guaranteeing payment in the case of loss or damage.